The Next Title Contender in Each UFC Weight Class
Last week, the UFC made some announcements regarding upcoming fights over the course of the summer. Every pay-per-view card through August 19th has been officially set and scheduled. While some of the contenders on this list are based solely on speculation and wishful thinking, most have been either confirmed and scheduled or highly rumored by now. With that being said let’s get into what the future of each weight class looks like right now.
Strawweight (W): Amanda Lemos (13–2–1)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Zhang Weili
STATUS: Confirmed (August 19, 2023)
NEXT UP: Yan Xiaonan, Rose Namajunas
Last week, the UFC announced that Amanda Lemos will take on Zhang Weili at UFC 292 in August for the women’s strawweight title. This fight makes sense as Lemos and Yan Xiaonan are certainly the consensus top contenders in the division at the moment. If the timing were better, a number one contender fight between the two of them would’ve probably been a good move. However, Zhang Weili has not fought since November and the UFC is not going to hold up the division to wait for the result of a Yan and Lemos fight. While Yan’s recent knockout victory over Jessica Andrade at UFC 288 was extremely impressive and probably puts her next in line for a title shot after Lemos, the timing just works out better for Lemos right now. Rose Namajunas is also listed as a potential contender and that is primarily due to her 2–0 record against Zhang Weili. Outside of her previous victories over Zhang and her number two status in the strawweight rankings, “Thug” Rose does not really have an argument for a title fight at the moment as she is currently coming off an extremely disappointing performance against Carla Esparza last year. Many UFC fans believe that the Namajunas vs. Esparza fight was one of the worst title bouts in UFC history. In all likelihood, Yan will be next up after Lemos as she is ranked third in the division and is coming off one of the best knockouts of the year so far.
Flyweight (W): Valentina Shevchenko (23–4)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Alexa Grasso
STATUS: TBD
ALTERNATIVES: Manon Fiorot, Taila Santos, Erin Blanchfield
The women’s flyweight division is one of the few weight classes with no current official news on the next title fight. There have not been many rumors swirling about the next contender in the division either. The reason for that is probably that the easy answer is Valentina Shevchenko as she has made it clear that she wants a rematch. Shevchenko had been the champion of the women’s flyweight division since 2018 and had successfully defended the belt eight times before Alexa Grasso pulled off one of the biggest upsets of all time when she submitted Shevchenko at UFC 285. Not every champion that loses the belt should be entitled to an immediate rematch, but Shevchenko is a different story. There is precedent here as the UFC granted Amanda Nunes an immediate rematch against Julianna Peña after the massive upset in 2021. Shevchenko and Nunes are cut from the same cloth and if Nunes received an immediate rematch against Peña, Shevchenko deserves the same against Grasso. If the UFC opts to go in a different direction to prevent stagnation in the division, some options could be top contenders like Manon Fiorot, Erin Blanchfield, or Taila Santos. However, the most likely route the UFC will take would probably be to make the Grasso and Shevchenko rematch while pitting Fiorot, Blanchfield, and Santos against each other for a true number one contender status in the meantime.
Bantamweight (W): Irene Aldana (14–6)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Amanda Nunes
STATUS: Confirmed (June 10, 2023)
NEXT UP: Julianna Peña, Raquel Pennington, Holly Holm
The next women’s bantamweight championship is confirmed with an official bout date. As a matter of fact, it is slated to be the next title fight in the UFC with a scheduled date of June 10th. The fight was originally supposed to be a trilogy match between Amanda Nunes and Julianna Peña before Peña pulled out. This would lead one to believe that Peña would probably be the choice for the next title bout, assuming that Amanda Nunes wins against Irene Aldana next month. As long as Nunes is the champion of the division, there are not really any other contenders with a real argument for the next title shot outside of Peña. This is why the trilogy match between Nunes and Peña was scheduled in the first place. However, if Aldana were to pull off the upset over Nunes next month, this could potentially open the door to contenders like Raquel Pennington or Holly Holm as Aldana has previously lost to both of them. This would be assuming, of course, that the UFC would not grant Nunes an immediate rematch should she lose.
Flyweight: Alexandre Pantoja (25–5)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Brandon Moreno
STATUS: Confirmed (July 8, 2023)
NEXT UP: Brandon Royval, Kai Kara-France
The flyweight division is another one with a confirmed and scheduled title bout. Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja are officially set to square off at UFC 290 in July. Pantoja was the logical next step here as the Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo series has finally come to a close. Pantoja’s only losses in the last four years were to Figueiredo, who has already had plenty of shots at Moreno, and the recently retired Askar Askarov. Pantoja’s resume even includes a unanimous decision over Moreno, making this fight the obvious choice. The conversation surrounding who would be next after the fight in July is where things get a little more interesting. If Pantoja takes the belt from Moreno in July, this would open the door to Kai Kara-France getting another title shot as he has already lost to Moreno twice. However, if Moreno successfully defends the belt, Brandon Royval would likely get his chance at the title after his impressive knockout win over number five ranked Matheus Nicolau. All that being said, the UFC is probably regretting its decision to trade Demetrious Johnson for Ben Askren right about now given the lack of star power in this division. “Mighty Mouse” is still delivering exciting knockouts for rival fight promotion, ONE Championship, while Askren has long been out of the UFC and was most recently seen getting knocked out by Jake Paul in a boxing match. While Pantoja and Moreno will definitely be an entertaining fight, one can only wonder what the landscape of the division would look like right now if Johnson was still on the UFC roster.
Bantamweight: Sean O’Malley (16–1)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Aljamain Sterling
STATUS: Confirmed (August 19, 2023)
NEXT UP: Merab Dvalishvili, Cory Sandhagen
While already heavily rumored, the Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley title fight was officially announced and scheduled by the UFC last week. It’s official. “Suga” Sean will take on Aljo in Boston on August 19th, a relatively quick turnaround for Sterling. The direction of this division was made pretty obvious after UFC 288 when O’Malley entered the octagon for a face-off with Sterling. What’s more intriguing is figuring out where the bantamweight division goes after this upcoming fight. Sterling has suggested in recent press conferences that this will probably be his last fight at 135 lbs. He has said that he intends to move up to the featherweight division after the O’Malley fight, regardless of the outcome. That would open the door wide open for Merab Dvalishvili to be next in line for a shot. He is currently the clear number one contender in the division, but he is also a teammate and close friend of Aljamain Sterling and will not fight him. With Sterling at 145 lbs, Merab would definitely fight for the bantamweight title next. His opponent would hinge on the outcome of Sterling vs. O’Malley. If O’Malley becomes the champion, Merab would obviously face him next. However, if Sterling wins and vacates the belt by moving up to featherweight, the top name to watch would probably be Cory Sandhagen. Cory is coming off big wins against Marlon Vera and Song Yadong and could potentially be looking to extend his current winning streak to three as he is rumored to be fighting Umar Nurmagomedov soon.
Featherweight: Yair Rodriguez (16–3)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Alexander Volkanovski
STATUS: Confirmed (July 8, 2023)
NEXT UP: Aljamain Sterling, Max Holloway, Arnold Allen
This fight has been locked in since Yair Rodriguez won the interim featherweight title in February. As expected, Alexander Volkanovski is back from his lightweight excursion and ready to continue wreaking havoc on the featherweight division. His next target at 145 lbs is Rodriguez, the interim champion. The unification bout has been officially set as the main event for UFC 290 on July 8th. The featherweight division is in a weird position as the fight in July will probably leave more questions than answers regarding where to go next. If Volkanovski wins, does the UFC potentially give him new featherweight Aljamian Sterling? If not Sterling, could it still be Arnold Allen even after his recent loss to Max Holloway? Would Holloway potentially move up to lightweight if Volk is still the champion? If Rodriguez pulls off the upset, would they give Volk an immediate rematch or give Holloway a shot first? Will Volkanovski fight Islam Makhachev at lightweight again regardless of who wins this fight? There is not really a clear answer to any of these questions at the moment. The fight in July will provide some answers, but the division is kind of stuck in an awkward place with the clear one-two status of Volkanovski and Holloway and a trilogy between them already in the books.
Lightweight: Charles Oliveira (33–9)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Islam Makhachev
STATUS: TBD
ALTERNATIVES: Beneil Dariush
Figuring out the next title fight in the lightweight division is relatively straightforward. It’s been made pretty clear that the winner of the Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush fight next month will take on Islam Makhachev in Abu Dhabi on October 19th at UFC 294. As of now, it seems like a true number one contender fight with no caveats. Without getting too much into a fight prediction analysis, it is relatively confusing why Dariush is favored to win this fight given the historic streak Oliveira was on before falling to Makhachev. Prior to the loss against Islam, “Do Bronxs” had won 11 fights in a row with his most recent fights being convincing finishes over Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, and Michael Chandler. Over the course of that 11 fight win streak, Tony Ferguson was the only one to go the distance with him, as Oliveira finished everyone else with relative ease. Regardless, the status of the division is cut and dry: the winner of Oliveira vs. Dariush in June gets Islam in October. The more interesting discussion in the lightweight division is what is happening with the other top contenders. The UFC announced last week that Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will fight in late July and it has also been known for a long time that Michael Chandler will face Conor McGregor sometime after The Ultimate Fighter finishes airing. While we don’t yet know at what weight Chandler and McGregor will fight, both of these fights will certainly have a huge impact on the future of the division.
Welterweight: Colby Covington (17–3)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Leon Edwards
STATUS: Rumored
NEXT UP: Belal Muhammad
The direction of the welterweight division seems to be set for the foreseeable future. Dana White has made it clear that Colby Covington will be fighting Leon Edwards for the next title fight at 170 lbs. While it is a relatively controversial decision due to Covington’s inactivity over the past year and the objections from Leon Edwards, it seems like a certainty at this point. The official date has not yet been announced, but the UFC would probably like to schedule this fight sooner rather than later as they also have another contender lined up in Belal Muhammad. Belal is coming off an impressive win over Gilbert Burns in a fight where the winner was essentially promised a title shot at welterweight after Covington. While it does not seem that there is much to speculate about in this division, there are some other contenders worth keeping an eye on in the meantime. First and foremost, the future of Kamaru Usman must be discussed. It does seem as though the former champion is the odd man out in the division at the moment, which is a statement that would have seemed absurd not that long ago. However, he has already lost a trilogy to Edwards and has won two title fights against Covington. That leaves him in an awkward position as the UFC would probably not be eager to make either of those fights. At this point, the argument could be made that Usman would actually have a quicker path to a title fight at middleweight. This move up would make a lot of sense as Usman and Khamzat Chimaev, another welterweight fighter rumord to be moving to 185 lbs, have been in discussions on Twitter regarding a potential fight. Outside of those two, some names to look out for in this division would be Shavkat Rakhmonov, Stephen Thompson, and of course, Gilbert Burns.
Middleweight: Khamzat Chimaev (12–0)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Israel Adesanya
STATUS: TBD
ALTERNATIVES: Kamaru Usman, Robert Whittaker, Dricus Du Plessis, Sean Strickland
Alex Pereira’s move to light heavyweight has quietly left the middleweight division in shambles as there is currently no good fight to make for Israel Adesanya. He has already defeated every top five contender in the division and without the option of a trilogy match with Pereira, the highest ranked contender at middleweight he has yet to face is the sixth ranked Dricus Du Plessis. While there is bad blood between them, most agree that Du Plessis is not ready for Adesanya yet. That theory will be tested when he fights Robert Whittaker in July in a fight that will probably get Dricus a title shot should he win. If not, Whittaker could potentially get another title fight despite already losing twice to Adesanya. If the UFC opts to go in a different direction, then who should fight Adesanya next? Sean Strickland could potentially be an option as he is currently ranked seventh and has had some entertaining exchanges with Adesanya in press conferences. However, this is where Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman come in. The best move the UFC could make right now would be to move them both up to middleweight and have them fight for the number one contender status to inject some new star power into the division. Any subsequent title fights involving either one of them facing Adesanya would be astronomically better for the UFC right now than feeding any of the current middleweight contenders to the champion.
Light Heavyweight: Israel Adesanya (24–2)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Jamahal Hill
STATUS: TBD
ALTERNATIVES: Jirí Procházka, Magomed Ankalaev
It is no secret that Jirí Procházka is eager to make his return and reclaim his belt that he vacated in December due to injury. As a result of this, rumors have been circulating regarding Procházka’s potential comeback. However, Dana White has stated that Procházka’s shoulder injury was one of the worst that UFC doctors had seen and they had recommended he take a full year off. What the UFC should do right now is protect Procházka from himself as athletes typically try to return from injury before they should. Instead of rushing him back or holding up the division to wait for him, the UFC should schedule a fight for champion Jamahal Hill in the meantime and guarantee Procházka a title shot upon his return. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen as there have still been plenty of rumors surrounding a fight between Jirí and Hill. However, there have also been rumblings about Israel Adesanya potentially attempting to move up and fight Hill to obtain double champion status. While Adesanya has already unsuccessfully attempted this feat in the past against Jan Blachowicz, it does make sense when looking at the current state of both weight classes. Procházka is currently unavailable to fight Hill for the title due to injury and middleweight does not currently have a good fight for Adesanya, who likes to stay active. Rather than holding up the light heavyweight division while Jirí recovers and sidelining one of the UFC’s biggest stars in Adesanya while the middleweight division plays itself out, it would make sense to schedule this fight in the meantime. The only other option at this point would be to make a title fight between Hill and number two ranked contender Magomed Ankalaev. However, the UFC is in the business of selling pay-per-views and Adesanya attempting to obtain double champion status would certainly generate more buzz than a Hill vs. Ankalaev fight right now. Furthermore, some interesting news in this division came out last week as a fight between Jan Blachowicz and Alex Pereira was officially announced and scheduled for UFC 291 in late July. If Pereira were to win that fight, it is not crazy to think that a trilogy match with Adesanya for the light heavyweight belt could be on the horizon in the future.
Heavyweight: Stipe Miocic (20–4)
CURRENT CHAMPION: Jon Jones
STATUS: Rumored
NEXT UP: Sergei Pavlovich, Ciryl Gane
Much like the impending fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington at welterweight, this fight is only categorized as “rumored” because an official date has not yet been announced. It’s been made pretty obvious that the UFC wants Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic to happen and both fighters seem to be on board as well. This fight was originally projected to take place during International Fight Week in July, but has since been delayed for undisclosed reasons. This is understandable as fighters with this level of name recognition typically have much more control over when and where they fight. While Jones is probably the greatest fighter to ever step into the octagon, he has also been the king of delayed or cancelled bouts in recent years. Adding to the chaos was Jones’ recent statement on Twitter claiming that he would like to fight Stipe in Madison Square Garden and potentially make a retirement announcement in his home state of New York. This would make sense as Stipe Miocic is probably the only current heavyweight in the world with the star power to entice “Bones” to stick around. That is, of course, other than Francis Ngannou — but let’s not open that can of worms right now. When looking at what actually lies ahead in the heavyweight division, it would not be surprising if Miocic were to also retire after this upcoming fight given his age and recent inactivity. All this is to say that there is a high probability of the heavyweight title being left vacant after the Jones vs. Miocic fight. If that does actually occur, the UFC has some intriguing options moving forward. One fighter who would definitely get the call would be Sergei Pavlovich as he has been on an absolute warpath with six first round knockouts in a row. He isn’t just making light work of scrubs either; this run includes first round knockouts of ranked fighters like Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa, and Curtis Blaydes. There have been rumors of Pavlovich facing Ciryl Gane next and it would probably be wise for the UFC to save that fight until after Jones vs. Miocic as it could easily become a title fight for the vacant belt.